Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 2nd quarter 2014 (14 May 2014)
Ifo World Economic Climate Deteriorates Marginally
The Ifo Index for the world economy fell from 103.2 to 102.3 points. Assessments of the current economic situation remain satisfactory. The six-month economic outlook clouded over slightly, but remains friendly overall. WES experts expect world economic growth of 2.5 percent this year. They forecast growth rates of 1.6 percent for Europe and 2.5 percent for North America. In Latin America and Asia, by contrast, respective growth rates of 2.3 percent and 3.7 percent will be lower than the high figures seen in the recent past. The world economy continues to follow an upward trend, but is showing little momentum.
The crisis in the Ukraine left a clear mark on survey results for Russia and the Ukraine. In Russia expectations for the next six months clouded over considerably. Experts in Russia forecast economic growth of just 0.8 percent for the entire year. The Ukraine’s economy is expected to contract by 2.5 percent.
The stabilisation of the world economic climate masks differing trends: while the countries of Europe and North America in particular have found their feet again, the pace of growth in the emerging economies of Asia and Latin America seems to be slowing down. The Ifo index for North America rose by 5.0 points, primarily due to improved expectations. In Europe the 1.9 point rise in the index was not so marked. More positive assessments of the economic situation were crucial in Europe, while expectations deteriorated slightly. In Asia (7.9 point decline in the indicator), Latin America (-4.6) and the CIS-states (-8.3) both components of the economic climate clouded over.
Inflation expectations worldwide are moderate, with the exception of Latin America, and particularly of Argentina and Venezuela.
President of the Ifo Institute
World Economy (Index, 2005 = 100)
Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The April 2014 survey received responses from 1,134 experts in 121 countries.