Main Content

Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 2nd quarter 2013 (15 May 2013)

Ifo World Economic Climate Improves Slightly

The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator continued to rise, even if only slightly. Both assessments of the current economic situation and the six-month economic outlook improved slightly compared to the previous quarter. There are a growing number of signs that the world economy is stabilising.

While the economic climate indicator rose only slightly in Western Europe and North America, it increased sharply in Asia. Thanks to much brighter assessments of the economic situation and expectations, the indicator for Asia reached its highest mark since the end of 2010. In North America assessments of the current economic situation are somewhat better, but remain below the satisfactory mark. The experts surveyed remain positive about the sixmonth economic outlook, but to a somewhat lesser degree than last quarter. In Western Europe the economic situation remains unfavourable. Economic expectations for the next six months, on the other hand, are slightly more positive, leading to a moderate overall improvement in the economic climate.

World average inflation estimates for 2013 fell somewhat from 3.3% to 3.2%. WES experts on average expect short-term interest rates to remain largely unchanged over the next six months, while long-term interest rates are expected to increase slightly. On worldwide average, economic experts expect moderate increase in the value of the US dollar over the next six months.

Kai Carstensen
Head of Department Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

Image Image Image Image Image Image

World Economy (Index, 2005 = 100)

Quarter/year II/11 III/11 IV/11 I/12 II/12 III/12 IV/12 I/13 II/13
Climate 107.7 97.7 78.7 82.4 95.0 85.1 82.4 94.1 96.8 
Situation 108.4 99.1 86.0 84.1 87.9 78.5 76.6 80.4 84.1 
Expectations 107.0 96.5 71.9 80.7 101.8 91.2 87.7 107.0 108.8 

Climate (2005=100)

Quarter/year II/11 III/11 IV/11 I/12 II/12 III/12 IV/12 I/13 II/13
North America 98.7 81.2 69.5 87.9 95.4 81.2 80.3 86.2 87.0 
Western Europe 115.1 105.2 81.4 82.4 99.3 89.3 83.4 94.3 96.3 
Asia 101.8 94.7 77.2 74.6 90.4 83.3 81.6 97.4 106.1 


Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The April 2013 survey received responses from 1,178 experts in 125 countries.
The survey is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (ICC).

Detailed Publication

  1. Plenk, Johanna, Gernot Nerb and Klaus Wohlrabe, "CESifo World Economic Survey May 2013", CESifo World Economic Survey 12 (2), 2013, 1-27 | Details | PDF Download

  1. Nerb, Gernot and Johanna Plenk, "ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima leicht verbessert", ifo Schnelldienst 66 (10), 2013, 55-67 | Details | PDF Download


Johanna Garnitz

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1227
Fax: +49(0)89/907795-1227
Email: garnitz @

Short URL: