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Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2013 (13 February 2013)

Ifo World Economic Climate Improves

The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator rose after two successive decreases. The increase in the indicator was mainly driven by significantly more positive assessments of the six-month economic outlook, while assessments of the current economic situation improved only slightly. After six months of stagnation, the prospects for the world economy seem to be brightening.

The sharpest rise in the economic climate indicator was seen in Asia, where the indicator is now higher than its long-term average once again. Both assessments of the current economic situation, and especially expectations, have brightened considerably. In North America the rise in the economic climate indicator was mainly due to improved assessments of the current economic situation. Despite the improvement, the current economic situation is not completely satisfactory in this region. The current economic situation is also unfavourable in Western Europe. Assessments of the six-month economic outlook, on the other hand, were significantly more positive, which led to a moderate overall improvement in the economic climate.

World average inflation estimates for 2013 are 3.3%, following an estimated inflation rate of 3.6% for last year. WES experts on average expect short-term interest rates to remain largely unchanged over the next six months. However, they believe that long-term interest rates are set to increase slightly. On worldwide average, economic experts expect moderate growth in the value of the US dollar over the next six months.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

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World Economy (Index, new base year: 2005 = 100)

Quarter/year I/11 II/11 III/11 IV/11 I/12 II/12 III/12 IV/12 I/13
Climate 106.8 107.7 97.7 78.7 82.4 95.0 85.1 82.4 94.1
Situation 102.8 108.4 99.1 86.0 84.1 87.9 78.5 76.6 80.4
Expectations 110.5 107.0 96.5 71.9 80.7 101.8 91.2 87.7 107.0

Climate (2005=100)

Quarter/year I/11 II/11 III/11 IV/11 I/12 II/12 III/12 IV/12 I/13
North America 104.6 98.7 81.2 69.5 87.9 95.4 81.2 80.3 86.2
Western Europe 113.2 115.1 105.2 81.4 82.4 99.3 89.3 83.4 94.3
Asia 105.3 101.8 94.7 77.2 74.6 90.4 83.3 81.6 97.4

Note

Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The January 2013 survey received responses from 1,169 experts in 124 countries.
The survey is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (ICC).

Detailed Publication

  1. Plenk, Johanna, Gernot Nerb, Klaus Wohlrabe and Tim Oliver Berg, "CESifo World Economic Survey February 2013", CESifo World Economic Survey 12 (1), 2013, 1-25 | Details | Download

  1. Nerb, Gernot and Johanna Plenk, "ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima verbessert", ifo Schnelldienst 66 (04), 2013, 44-54 | Details | Download