Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 2nd quarter 2014 (07 May 2014)
Ifo Economic Climate Indicator in the Euro Area Continues to Brighten
The Ifo Index for the economic climate in the euro area rose from 119.9 points to 123.0 points in the second quarter, reaching its highest level since the end of 2007. The economic recovery is expected to take shape more clearly in the months ahead. According to the experts surveyed, economic growth will total 1.3 percent this year. Estimates range from -4.9 percent for Cyprus to 2.8 percent for Latvia. The rise in the Ifo indicator is due to less unfavourable assessments of the current economic situation. The economic outlook for the next six months remains good.
Germany continues to stand out thanks to its very strong economic situation. In most of the other countries of the euro area, by contrast, assessments of the current economic situation remain subdued. Among the countries afflicted by the euro crisis, WES experts reported a deterioration in the current economic situation in Ireland. In Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain no notable improvement was seen in the currently disastrous economic situation. High unemployment, public budget deficits and weak demand continue to plague these countries. Economic expectations nevertheless signal an improvement over the next six months in the euro area as a whole.
The forecast inflation rate has been falling steadily since the end of 2012 and is at 1.2 percent for 2014, which is clearly below the European Central Bank’s target figure. In this environment experts expect short-term interest rates to remain at their present low level for the next six months. Fewer experts than in the last survey expect an increase in long-term interest rates over the next six months.
President of the Ifo Institute
Euro area (Index, base year: 2005 = 100)
|Climate||81.7 ||95.1 ||95.1||102.3||114.7||119.9||123.0|
|Situation||97.9 ||95.1 ||92.3||95.1||106.3||120.3||128.7|
|Expectations||72.1 ||95.1 ||96.7||106.6||119.7||119.7||119.7|
Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. This allows for a rapid, up-to-date assessment of the economic situation prevailing around the world. The full set of results will be published on 14 May 2014. The 2nd quarter 2014 euro area results, which are published here in advance, are based on the responses of 289 economic experts.