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Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 2nd quarter 2013 (08 May 2013)

Ifo Economic Climate in Euro Area Remains Overcast

The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area remains at a low level. Assessments of the current economic situation are slightly less favourable than in the last survey. Expectations for the six-month economic outlook improved only slightly. An economic recovery has not yet started.

Assessments of the current economic situation by WES experts in Germany and Finland are more positive than last quarter. In most other countries, however, the situation deteriorated.In Greece, Portugal and Cyprus assessments are at the lowest level of the response scale, and they are only slightly better in Italy and Spain. The current economic situation in Belgium, France, Ireland and the Netherlands is also very unfavourable. Assessments in Finland, Austria and Slovakia are somewhat better, but still remain below the "satisfactory" mark. Germany and Estonia are the only countries in which the experts surveyed describe the current economic situation as satisfactory.

The expectations for the next six months are brighter in the majority of euro countries. In France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal, however, they clouded over.Expectations nevertheless remain positive in most member countries. Experts only expect the economic situation to deteriorate in France, Portugal and Cyprus.

WES experts downwardly adjusted inflation estimates for 2013 in the euro area from 2.1% to 1.9% p.a. According to survey participants, long-term interest rates look set to rise slightly over the next six months, but not in the "crisis countries", where a further decrease is expected. The majority of economic experts expect the US dollar to strengthen against the euro over the next six months. 

Kai Carstensen
Head of Department Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

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Euro area (Index, base year: 2005 = 100)

Quarter/year II/11 III/11 IV/11 I/12 II/12 III/12 IV/12 I/13 II/13
Climate 118.9 110.6 83.7 84.8 100.3 88.9 81.7 95.1 95.1 
Situation 159.4 156.6 128.7 109.1 114.7 103.5 97.9 95.1 92.3 
Expectations 95.1 83.6 57.4 70.5 91.8 80.3 72.1 95.1 96.7 

Note

Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The full set of results will be published on 15 May 2013.

The 2nd quarter 2013 euro area results, which are published here in advance, are based on the responses of 317 economic experts. WES is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris.

Detailed Publication

  1. Plenk, Johanna, Gernot Nerb and Klaus Wohlrabe, "CESifo World Economic Survey May 2013", CESifo World Economic Survey 12 (2), 2013, 1-27 | Details | PDF Download

  1. Nerb, Gernot and Johanna Plenk, "ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima leicht verbessert", ifo Schnelldienst 66 (10), 2013, 55-67 | Details | PDF Download

Contact

Johanna Garnitz

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1227
Fax: +49(0)89/907795-1227
Email: garnitz @ ifo.de
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