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Results of the Ifo Business Survey for February 2017

Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Declines

Unlike in Germany as a whole, the Business Climate Index for eastern German trade and industry fell significantly in February and deteriorated from 109.8 points to 109.4 points this month. Although survey participants’ assessments of the current business situation improved slightly, the six-month business outlook clouded over markedly.

The business climate index for manufacturing in eastern Germany edged downwards in February. Although manufacturers were somewhat more satisfied with the current business situation, they were slightly less optimistic about their six-month business outlook.

In eastern German wholesaling the business climate clouded over markedly this month. The wholesalers surveyed were slightly less optimistic about their current business situation and business expectations turned negative. In eastern German retailing, by contrast, sentiment improved, with the business climate index rising very sharply. Eastern German retailers remained satisfied with their current business situation and also expressed far greater confidence in their business outlook than last month.

In eastern German construction, by contrast, the business climate deteriorated significantly. Although the contractors surveyed were only slightly less satisfied with their current business situation than last month, this was primarily due to unfavourable weather conditions. They were, however, far more pessimistic about their six-month business outlook. 

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive directors, Dresden Branch of the Ifo Institute

Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
  02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17
Climate 107.5 107.0 107.6 109.0 109.3 108.4 106.5 109.3 110.1 109.9 110.5 109.8 109.4
Situation 113.3 112.4 112.6 113.7 114.2 112.3 110.2 113.4 113.4 112.7 113.1 114.2 115.0
Expectations 102.1 101.9 102.9 104.6 104.7 104.6 103.0 105.3 106.8 107.2 108.0 105.5 104.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
  02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17
Trade and Industry 7.5 6.5 7.7 10.4 11.0 9.1 5.5 10.9 12.4 12.1 13.3 11.8 11.1
Manufacturing 12.2 10.0 8.7 11.9 13.2 14.2 7.2 13.0 17.3 17.0 17.1 17.9 17.2
Construction 1.0 -3.3 2.2 4.5 4.8 1.9 3.9 8.6 7.7 9.1 11.8 13.1 5.2
Wholesaling 5.7 5.5 13.4 17.4 16.0 5.4 9.2 6.2 6.9 12.9 22.9 13.9 9.0
Retailing 0.3 6.6 7.0 7.9 7.8 2.6 -0.6 9.3 4.9 -1.7 -4.3 -11.8 -1.0
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany is based on ca. 1,200 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Michael Weber

Ifo Institute
Dresden Branch
Phone: +49(0)351/26476-13
Fax: +49(0)351/26476-20
Email: weber.m @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/JYMFr4oU