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Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2013

Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Brightens Significantly

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Eastern Germany rose sharply at the beginning of the year. This marked the fourth successive increase in the climate indicator, suggesting that the lowest point of the downturn has been overcome. Although Eastern German survey participants assessed their current business situation only slightly more positively than in December, they are expecting business to improve considerably over the next six months. The economic climate in Eastern Germany improved significantly at the beginning of the year as a result.

In Eastern German manufacturing the Ifo Business Climate Index remained unchanged at last month’s level. While Eastern German manufacturers are less satisfied with their current business situation, they are nevertheless more optimistic about their future business developments. Average capacity utilisation stabilised this month, after three successive decreases. The manufacturers surveyed continue to expect positive, if slightly weaker impulses from international business than last month.

The business climate in Eastern German wholesaling deteriorated slightly in January. The wholesalers surveyed assessed their current business situation as better than in December, but expressed greater pessimism about their six-month business outlook. The climate indicator rose in Eastern German retailing thanks to less unfavourable business expectations. Retailers’ assessments of their current business situation remained unchanged from last month.

The business climate improved significantly in Eastern German construction. This is due both to more favourable expectations with regard to future business developments and improved assessments of the current business situation.

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive directors, Dresden Branch of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details

  1. ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 01/2013

    Detaillierte Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests Deutschland im Januar 2013. Details

Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
  01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 01/13
Climate 106.6 109.5 109.2 106.4 105,9 107.1 105.2 105.1 101.3 102.1 103.9 104.0 105.5
Situation 111.7 115.1 114.2 111.5 110.3 113.1 111.5 111.3 108.6 107.4 108.8 106.8 107.0
Expectations 101.8 104.1 104.4 101.6 101.7 101.5 99.2 99.2 94.5 97.2 99.3 101.3 104.0
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
  01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 01/13
Trade and Industry 3.7 9.1 8.5 3.2 2.3 4.7 0.9 0.7 -6.5 -4.9 -1.5 -1.3 1.5
Manufacturing 13.6 14.5 16.7 13.2 12.7 13.7 5.1 7.9 0.3 2.8 4.7 7.2 7.2
Construction -5.1 7.3 2.4 -4.6 -5.9 -3.4 -5.1 -2.6 -9.6 -11.2 -4.7 -7.0 5.3
Wholesaling 4.4 13.6 5.2 1.2 -8.8 -5.4 -2.6 -8.2 -11.9 -6.6 -6.3 0.0 -2.0
Retailing -13.3 -6.3 -4.9 -12.9 -9.5 -4.6 -1.8 -10.0 -18.2 -17.3 -11.6 -18.2 -16.4
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany is based on ca. 1,200 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Robert Lehmann

Ifo Institute
Dresden Branch
Phone: +49(0)351/26476-21
Fax: +49(0)351/26476-20
Email: lehmann@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3vC2ZLPeY