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Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2012

Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Continues to Improve

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Eastern Germany rose once again in November. Survey participants from Eastern Germany are considerably more satisfied with their current business situation than in October. They also report a less unfavourable six-month business outlook. It remains to be seen whether this marks a turning point in the economic decline in Eastern Germany.

The business climate improved In Eastern German manufacturing. Eastern German manufacturers are more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. As far as future business developments are concerned, manufacturers also continued to express less pessimism overall in November. Eastern German manufacturers expect fewer negative impulses from international trade in the next three months and are planning fewer staff cuts than last month.

The climate indicator for Eastern German wholesaling remained unchanged at last month’s level in November. While the wholesalers surveyed are more satisfied with their current business situation, they expressed greater pessimism with regard to their future business developments. In Eastern German retailing the business climate brightened again. Although the current business situation was assessed as less satisfactory overall, Eastern German retailers no longer expect future business developments to be as unfavourable as they did last month.

The business climate in Eastern German construction improved significantly this month. Eastern German construction companies reported a slightly better business situation versus last month and expressed greater confidence about the future.

Joachim Ragnitz and Marcel Thum
Executive directors, Dresden Branch of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details

  1. ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 11/2012

    Detaillierte Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests Deutschland im November 2012. Details

Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
  11/11 12/11 01/11 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12
Climate 107.4 108.3 106.8 109.5 109.2 106.4 105.9 107.2 105.1 105.1 101.3 102.1 103.8
Situation 113.9 114.6 111.6 115.2 114.2 111.5 110.3 113.2 111.4 111.5 108.7 107.4 108.8
Expectations 101.2 102.4 102.2 104.1 104.3 101.6 101.7 101.5 99.1 99.1 94.4 97.1 99.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
  11/11 12/11 01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12
Trade and Industry 5.1 6.9 4.0 9.2 8.6 3.4 2.4 4.7 0.8 0.8 -6.5 -4.9 -1.6
Manufacturing 13.2

14.6 13.8 14.6 16.9 13.3 12.9 13.9 5.0 8.2 0.2 2.7 4.5
Construction -8.9 -4.9 -4.0 7.1 2.5 -4.5 -5.9 -3.3 -5.0 -2.8 -9.7 -11.4 -5.0
Wholesaling 9.7 12.9 4.1 14.1 5.1 1.4 -8.6 -5.8 -2.3 -8.2 -11.9 -6.7 -6.6
Retailing -2.8 -3.3 -13.3 -6.3 -5.3 -12.9 -9.8 -4.7 -2.3 -9.8 -18.2 -16.9 -11.4
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany is based on ca. 1,200 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Robert Lehmann

Ifo Institute
Dresden Branch
Phone: +49(0)351/26476-21
Fax: +49(0)351/26476-20
Email: lehmann@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3qXRSAFsL