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Ifo Export Climate for February 2017

Ifo Export Climate Continues to Rise

The Ifo Export Climate rose from 0.78 index points in January to 0.85 points in February 2017. The improvement in the export climate was due both to higher corporate and consumer confidence abroad, as well as the enhanced price competitiveness of German business.

Positive stimuli for the Ifo Export Climate came from firms in France, Britain and the USA. The implications of the Brexit decision still do not seem to be having any negative impact on British companies’ business expectations. Assessments by Dutch households also improved significantly, increasing for the seventh month in succession. Optimism on the part of consumers in the USA, by contrast, waned for the first time in five months. In Belgium both corporate and household expectations also deteriorated significantly.

Germany’s competitiveness improved in February. This was partly due to the euro’s depreciation against other currencies like the yen, and partly to a minimal improvement in Germany’s competitiveness compared to the rest of the euro area. The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar. 

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Ifo Export Climate
  02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17
Indicator -0.032 0.153 0.027 0.113 0.331 0.218 0.066 0.232 0.300 0.562 0.589 0.775 0.852
Source: Ifo Institute

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The Ifo Export Climate gauges company and consumer confidence and is an indicator for the price competitiveness of German companies versus 37 trade partners based on consumer price indices. Indicators from 41 countries, weighted by German export figures, are used to assess company and consumer confidence. The countries surveyed account for 90 percent of Germany's export markets and seasonally-adjusted figures are used to calculate the Ifo Export Climate. Price competitiveness comes into play in the log differences. The weightings given to price competitiveness and the world economic climate in the Ifo Export Climate are 0.12 and 0.88 respectively.

The Ifo Export Climate is calculated exclusively for the WirtschaftsWoche.

Contact

Christian Grimme

ifo Institute
ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1285
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1460
Email: grimme @ ifo.de
Website


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