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Results of the Novermber 2015 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises Markedly

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose considerably to 109.0 points in November from 108.2 points in October. Assessments of the current business situation improved. Optimism with a view to future business developments also continued to increase for the third consecutive month. The German economy remains unaffected by growing uncertainty worldwide. Not even the Paris attacks had a negative impact on survey data.

In manufacturing the business climate index rose after a three-month decline. Manufacturers were more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. Optimism about the short-term future also reached its highest level since March. Production will be ramped up in the months ahead. The sub-index for the automotive sector continued to rise despite the emissions scandal.

In wholesaling the business climate index rose to its highest level since January 2014. Wholesalers were more satisfied with both their current business situation and their six-month business outlook than last month. In retailing, by contrast, the business climate index fell. While very good assessments of the current business situation were only scaled back marginally, retailers were markedly less optimistic about the months ahead than previously.

In construction, the business climate index rose to its highest level since German reunification. This was primarily due to far better assessments of the current business situation. Expectations remained unchanged at a very high level and just below the record high reached in February 2007.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 11/2015", ifo Institut, München, 2015 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1412/1401/1502/1503/1504/1505/1506/1507/1508/1509/1510/1511/15
Climate 104.7 105.7 106.8 106.8 108.0 108.6 108.6 107.6 108.0 108.4 108.5 108.2 109.0
Situation 109.1 110.1 112.0 111.5 112.3 114.2 114.5 113.4 114.0 114.9 114.0 112.7 113.4
Expectations 100.4 101.4 101.9 102.4 103.8 103.3 102.9 102.1 102.4 102.2 103.3 103.9 104.7
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany by Sector (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1412/1401/1502/1503/1504/1505/1506/1507/1508/1509/1510/1511/15
Trade and Industry 2.6 4.6 6.8 6.8 9.0 10.2 10.1 8.2 9.1 9.7 10.1 9.4 10.9
Manufacturing 4.1 7.5 9.5 9.6 12.6 14.2 13.6 11.1 11.4 11.0 10.1 9.7 12.1
Construction -3.3 -5.2 -5.6 -5.7 -7.6 -5.1 -4.7 -3.6 -4.2 -2.6 0.3 0.7 2.6
Wholesaling 5.7 7.4 8.6 8.4 10.4 12.7 10.0 7.8 14.3 13.3 13.8 13.8 15.1
Retailing -2.5 -3.8 3.4 3.5 5.4 2.8 7.0 5.9 4.1 10.8 14.7 10.9 8.2
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


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