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Results of the September 2015 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Edges Upwards

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose in September to 108.5 from 108.4 points (seasonally revised) last month. Companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favourably than in August. However, they expressed greater optimism about future business developments. The German economy is proving robust.

In manufacturing the business climate continued to deteriorate slightly. Manufacturers scaled back their very good assessments of the current business situation, but were nevertheless more optimistic about short-term business developments. More companies plan to ramp up production in the months ahead.

The business climate brightened in trade. Wholesalers were more satisfied with their current business situation. Their optimism about the business outlook, by contrast, waned slightly. In retailing, assessments of the current business situation improved clearly for the third month in succession. The outlook for the months ahead also continued to brighten.

In construction, the business climate turned positive for the first time since January 2014. Contractors assessed both their current business situation and their business expectations far more favourably than in August.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 09/2015", ifo Institut, München, 2015 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 09/1410/1411/1412/1401/1502/1503/1504/1505/1506/1507/1508/1509/15
Climate 105.4 103.6 104.8 105.7 106.8 106.8 107.9 108.6 108.6 107.5 108.0 108.4 108.5
Situation 110.6 108.3 109.4 110.1 111.9 111.5 112.2 114.1 114.4 113.3 113.9 114.8 114.0
Expectations 100.5 99.2 100.4 101.5 101.9 102.3 103.8 103.4 103.0 102.1 102.4 102.2 103.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany by Sector (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 09/1410/1411/1412/1401/1502/1503/1504/1505/1506/1507/1508/1509/15
Trade and Industry 4.1 0.6 2.8 4.6 6.7 6.7 8.9 10.3 10.1 8.1 9.0 9.7 10.0
Manufacturing 8.1 2.5 4.3 7.5 9.4 9.5 12.6 14.2 13.7 11.0 11.4 11.1 10.1
Construction -3.3 -3.1 -3.2 -5.1 -5.6 -5.8 -7.7 -5.2 -4.7 -3.6 -4.3 -2.7 0.2
Wholesaling -2.1 0.6 6.0 7.3 8.5 8.3 10.2 12.8 9.9 7.6 14.2 13.2 13.7
Retailing -1.7 -5.2 -2.2 -3.9 3.4 3.5 5.3 2.7 7.0 5.8 4.1 10.8 14.7
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3g3VVPco9