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Results of the June 2015 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Falls

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German trade and industry fell to 107.4 points in June from 108.5 points last month. The indicator for the current business situation declined this month following three successive increases. Business expectations deteriorated for the third consecutive month and are now only slightly optimistic. The outlook for the German economy is overcast.

In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated clearly. After reaching the year’s highest level in May, assessments of the current business situation deteriorated somewhat, but nevertheless remained good. Business expectations for the months ahead clouded over. Manufacturers still plan to ramp up production, but to a lesser extent than previously.

In wholesaling the business climate indicator fell. This was due to a sharp decline in business expectations. By contrast, wholesalers assessed their current business situation more positively. In retailing the business climate indicator declined. Retailers were slightly less satisfied with both their current business situation and their business outlook.

The business climate in construction improved for the third month in succession. While assessments of the current business situation deteriorated slightly, expectations brightened markedly.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 06/2015", ifo Institut, München, 2015 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief (in German)

  1. Wohlrabe, Klaus, "ifo Konjunkturtest Juni 2015 in Kürze: Gedämpfte Aussichten für die deutsche Wirtschaft", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (13), 2015, 58-62 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 06/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/1401/1502/1503/1504/1505/1506/15
Climate 109.3 108.0 106.5 105.5 103.6 104.8 105.6 106.7 106.8 107.9 108.6 108.5 107.4
Situation 114.4 113.3 111.0 110.8 108.2 109.4 109.9 111.7 111.4 112.1 114.1 114.3 113.1
Expectations 104.3 103.0 102.2 100.5 99.2 100.3 101.5 102.0 102.4 103.9 103.5 103.0 102.0
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany by Sector (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 06/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/1401/1502/1503/1504/1505/1506/15
Trade and Industry 11.5 9.1 6.2 4.3 0.5 2.8 4.4 6.6 6.8 8.8 10.3 10.0 7.9
Manufacturing 15.1 13.1 10.5 8.3 2.4 4.2 7.4 9.3 9.5 12.5 14.3 13.6 10.8
Construction -4.4 -4.9 -3.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 -5.1 -5.6 -5.7 -7.7 -5.1 -4.8 -3.8
Wholesaling 11.7 9.3 1.6 -1.8 0.5 6.0 7.2 8.3 8.3 10.1 12.8 9.8 7.4
Retailing 9.0 3.0 -0.2 -1.4 -5.3 -2.2 -4.0 3.2 3.4 5.2 2.7 6.9 5.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/47UixkjMq