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Results of the February 2015 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Edges Upwards

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose to 106.8 points in February from 106.7 points last month. Satisfaction with the current business situation decreased somewhat, but companies expressed greater confidence in future business developments. The German economy is proving robust in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose somewhat. Manufacturers’ assessments of the current business situation were slightly less favourable than last month. The six-month business outlook improved, however, reaching its highest level since August 2014. International business remains a key driver.

In wholesaling the business climate deteriorated marginally. Wholesalers were somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation, but expressed greater optimism about future business developments. In retailing the business climate index edged upwards. Very good assessments of the current business situation were scaled back somewhat, but the outlook continued to improve.

In construction the business climate deteriorated slightly, but the index remains at a high level. Contractors were slightly more satisfied with their current business situation, but the six-month business outlook clouded over somewhat.  

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 02/2015", ifo Institut, München, 2015 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief (in German)

  1. Wohlrabe, Klaus, "ifo Konjunkturtest im Februar 2015 in Kürze: Die deutsche Wirtschaft zeigt sich robust gegenüber den geopolitischen Unsicherheiten", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (05), 2015, 49-52 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Manufacturing Industry

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock Industry and Trade

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 02/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/1401/1502/15
Climate 110.9 111.0 110.9 110.1 109.4 108.1 106.4 105.4 103.4 104.6 105.5 106.7 106.8
Situation 114.2 115.6 115.3 114.8 114.6 113.3 110.8 110.7 108.1 109.2 109.8 111.7 111.3
Expectations 107.7 106.5 106.6 105.6 104.5 103.1 102.2 100.2 98.9 100.2 101.3 102.0 102.5
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany by Sector (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
  02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 01/15 02/15
Trade and Industry 14.5 14.9 14.7 14.6 13.1 11.8 9.1 5.8 3.8 0.1 2.4 4.2 6.6
• Manufacturing 19.1 19.9 19.5 18.4 15.6 13.2 10.2 7.8 1.8 3.7 7.1 9.3 9.5
• Construction 0.0 -1.2 -4.7 -4.6 -4.4 -5.0 -3.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 -5.2 -5.6 -5.8
• Wholesaling 12.6 11.2 14.9 12.1 11.9 9.4 1.5 -2.0 0.3 5.8 7.1 8.3 8.2
• Retailing 8.9 9.2 8.7 5.2 9.1 3.0 -0.3 -1.5 -5.4 -2.3 -4.2 3.2 3.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

 

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/urzgWkPk