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Results of the January 2015 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Rise

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose to 106.7 points in January from 105.5 points last month, marking its third successive increase. Companies were far more satisfied with their current business situation and the majority was also optimistic about the business outlook. The German economy makes a good start to the year.

 In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose for the third month in succession. Assessments of the current business situation were better and manufacturers also expressed greater confidence in short-term business developments. Stronger impulses are expected from exports thanks to the falling euro exchange rate. Capacity utilisation rates rose by 0.4 percentage points to 84.6 percent.

In wholesaling the business climate continued to improve. This was largely due to far better assessments of the current business situation, while wholesalers expressed greater caution about their business outlook. In retailing the business climate turned positive for the first time since July 2014. Assessments of the current business situation improved considerably and retailers’ expectations also brightened.

In construction the business climate deteriorated slightly. Contractors were somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation, but the six-month business outlook brightened marginally.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 01/2015", ifo Institut, München, 2015 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief (in German)

  1. Wohlrabe, Klaus, "ifo Konjunkturtest Januar 2015 in Kürze: Die deutsche Wirtschaft startet gut ins neue Jahr", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (03), 2015, 45-48 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 01/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/1401/15
Climate 110.8 111.1 110.9 110.9 110.1 109.5 108.0 106.3 105.3 103.4 104.6 105.5 106.7
Situation 113.4 114.4 115.5 115.3 114.8 114.6 113.3 110.8 110.7 108.1 109.2 109.8 111.7
Expectations 108.3 107.8 106.5 106.6 105.6 104.5 103.0 102.1 100.2 98.9 100.2 101.3 102.0
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 01/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/1401/15
Trade and Industry 14.5 14.9 14.7 14.6 13.1 11.8 9.1 5.8 3.8 0.1 2.4 4.2 6.6
Manufacturing 18.4 19.5 19.9 19.5 18.4 15.6 13.1 10.0 7.6 1.8 3.7 7.1 9.3
Construction 1.3 0.6 -1.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.4 -5.0 -3.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.3 -5.3 -5.8
Wholesaling 17.5 12.8 11.2 14.9 12.1 11.9 9.3 1.4 -2.0 0.2 5.8 7.1 8.3
Retailing 4.4 9.0 9.2 8.7 5.2 9.1 3.0 -0.4 -1.5 -5.5 -2.3 -4.3 3.2
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/fuFEc6cg