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Results of the December 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Rise

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose to 105.5 points in December from 104.7 points last month. Positive assessments of the current business situation remained unchanged. The outlook for the months ahead continued to brighten. Dropping oil prices and a falling euro exchange rate are seasonal gifts to the German economy.

In manufacturing the business climate continued to improve. Firms only slightly scaled back their assessments of the current business situation. After three months of negative figures, the business outlook for the next half year turned positive again in December. Exports continue to support German manufacturing.

In wholesaling the business climate indicator rose for the third month in succession. This was particularly due to far more optimistic expectations, while wholesalers assessed the current business situation as less favourable. In retailing, by contrast, the business climate clouded over. While retailers were more satisfied with the current business situation, they expressed greater pessimism about the months ahead.

In construction the business climate deteriorated marginally, but nevertheless remains at a very high level. Contractors slightly scaled back their favourable assessments of both the current business situation and the business outlook.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 12/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief

  1. Ifo Business Survey for December 2014 in Brief: Dropping Oil Prices and a Falling Euro Exchange Rate Are Seasonal Gifts to the German Economy | Jan 20, 2015 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 12/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/14
Climate 109.5 110.6 111.2 110.6 111.1 110.3 109.6 107.9 106.3 104.7 103.2 104.7 105.5
Situation 111.6 112.5 114.4 115.2 115.2 114.7 114.7 112.8 111.1 110.4 108.4 110.0 110.0
Expectations 107.4 108.8 108.2 106.3 107.2 106.1 104.7 103.3 101.6 99.3 98.3 99.8 101.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 12/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/1412/14
Trade and Industry 11.4 13.7 14.8 13.7 14.7 13.0 11.7 8.5 5.2 2.2 -0.6 2.3 3.7
Manufacturing 15.5 17.8 19.7 19.0 20.1 18.8 15.4 12.2 9.3 6.2 1.5 3.9 6.4
Construction 1.3 2.4 0.6 -3.5 -3.4 -4.0 -3.7 -5.5 -5.3 -7.0 -7.2 -5.9 -6.2
Wholesaling 9.2 15.3 12.5 10.8 14.2 11.2 12.3 9.1 2.6 -2.5 -0.1 6.1 7.2
Retailing 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.4 7.6 4.7 7.9 3.6 -0.8 -2.1 -4.6 -1.7 -3.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/iZUiMUoT