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Results of the November 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose in November to 104.7 points from 103.2 points in October. The business climate previously deteriorated six times in a row. Assessments of the current business situation are slightly more favourable than last month. Expectations with regard to the months ahead are also brighter. The downturn in the German economy has ground to a halt for the moment at least.

In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose after six consecutive decreases. Manufacturers are more satisfied with their current business situation. They are also somewhat less pessimistic about their business outlook. Manufacturers continue to expect further stimuli from export business.

In wholesaling the business climate improved markedly. Wholesalers assess their current business situation as significantly better. Business expectations turned slightly positive. The business climate also brightened in retailing. Thanks to a marginal improvement in the current business situation, positive and negative assessments are now balanced. Retailers are far less pessimistic about future business developments.

In construction the overall favourable current business situation deteriorated only marginally. The marked improvement in business expectations is typical for this time of the year.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 11/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief

  1. Ifo Business Survey in November 2014 in Brief: Downturn Grounds to a Halt Temporarily At Least | Dec 15, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/14
Climate 109.5 109.5 110.6 111.2 110.6 111.1 110.3 109.6 107.9 106.3 104.7 103.2 104.7
Situation 112.4 111.6 112.5 114.4 115.2 115.3 114.7 114.7 112.8 111.1 110.4 108.4 110.0
Expectations 106.6 107.4 108.8 108.2 106.3 107.2 106.1 104.7 103.3 101.6 99.3 98.3 99.7
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/1411/14
Trade and Industry 11.4 11.5 13.7 14.8 13.7 14.7 13.1 11.7 8.5 5.2 2.2 -0.6 2.3
Manufacturing 15.6 15.6 17.8 19.7 19.0 20.1 18.8 15.5 12.2 9.3 6.2 1.5 3.9
Construction -2.8 1.3 2.4 0.5 -3.5 -3.4 -4.0 -3.7 -5.5 -5.3 -7.0 -7.2 -5.9
Wholesaling 11.7 9.4 15.3 12.5 10.8 14.2 11.2 12.3 9.1 2.6 -2.5 -0.2 6.1
Retailing 5.4 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.4 7.6 4.7 7.9 3.7 -0.8 -2.1 -4.6 -1.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/4C8guqxPN