Main Content

Results of the October 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in October to 103.2 points from 104.7 points in the previous month. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favourable than last month. Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again.

In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated significantly. Assessments of the current business situation were markedly less favourable and are now only marginally higher than the long-term average. Business expectations also continued to deteriorate. Capacity utilisation rates fell by 0.3 percentage points to 83.7 percent. Export business expectations, however, was the only area in which manufacturers did express mild confidence.

In wholesaling the business climate index rose. After three consecutive decreases, assessments of the current business situation improved considerably. Business expectations remained slightly pessimistic. In retailing the business climate continued to cloud over. Retailers were markedly less satisfied with their current business situation. Their expectations, by contrast, brightened somewhat.

In construction the business climate indicator dropped marginally, but remains at a very good level. Construction firms assessed their current business situation as slightly more favourable. Business expectations, however, fell to their lowest level in a year.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 10/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief

  1. Ifo Business Survey in October 2014 in Brief: Economic Outlook Continues to Deteriorate | Oct 10, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 10/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/14
Climate 107.7 109.4 109.5 110.6 111.2 110.6 111.2 110.3 109.6 107.9 106.3 104.7 103.2
Situation 111.5 112.3 111.6 112.4 114.4 115.2 115.3 114.7 114.7 112.8 111.1 110.4 108.4
Expectations 104.0 106.6 107.4 108.8 108.2 106.3 107.2 106.1 104.7 103.3 101.6 99.3 98.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 10/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/1410/14
Trade and Industry 8.0 11.4 11.5 13.7 14.8 13.7 14.7 13.1 11.7 8.5 5.2 2.2 -0.6
Manufacturing 11.7 15.5 15.6 17.7 19.7 19.0 20.1 18.9 15.5 12.3 9.3 6.2 1.5
Construction -5.8 -2.8 1.3 2.4 0.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.0 -3.7 -5.5 -5.3 -7.0 -7.2
Wholesaling 8.3 11.9 9.4 15.3 12.5 10.8 14.3 11.2 12.4 9.2 2.6 -2.5 -0.2
Retailing 3.9 5.4 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.4 7.6 4.8 7.9 3.7 -0.7 -2.1 -4.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/yJ97UT8W