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Results of the September 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in September to 104.7 points from 106.3 points in the previous month. The index dropped to its lowest level since April 2013. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favourable than last month. Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook fell to their lowest level since December 2012. The German economy is no longer running smoothly.

In manufacturing the business climate index continued to fall. Manufacturers were once again somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation, which nevertheless remains favourable. Expectations turned slightly negative for the first time since January 2013. Hardly any stimulus is expected from export business.

In wholesaling the business climate index deteriorated once again. Assessments of the current business situation dropped to their lowest level since March 2010. The business outlook also continued to cloud over. In retailing the business climate indicator dropped. Although assessments of the current business situation improved slightly, scepticism with regard to future business developments increased significantly.

In construction the index dropped to its lowest level since December 2012. It nevertheless remains at a very high level historically. Construction firms were slightly less satisfied with their current business situation than in August. The business outlook also clouded over slightly.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 09/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Survey in Brief

  1. Ifo Business Survey for September 2014 in Brief: The German Economy Is No Longer Running Smoothly | Oct 10, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 09/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/14
Climate 108.0 107.6 109.4 109.5 110.6 111.2 110.6 111.2 110.3 109.6 108.0 106.3 104.7
Situation 111.5 111.4 112.3 111.6 112.4 114.4 115.2 115.3 114.8 114.7 112.8 111.1 110.5
Expectations 104.6 103.9 106.6 107.4 108.8 108.2 106.3 107.2 106.1 104.7 103.3 101.7 99.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 09/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/1409/14
Trade and Industry 8.5 7.7 11.4 11.5 13.6 14.8 13.7 14.7 13.1 11.7 8.5 5.3 2.3
Manufacturing 12.4 11.3 15.5 15.6 17.7 19.7 19.0 20.1 18.9 15.5 12.3 9.4 6.3
Construction -5.8 -5.9 -2.8 1.3 2.4 0.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.1 -3.7 -5.5 -5.3 -7.1
Wholesaling 6.1 8.2 11.9 9.4 15.3 12.5 10.8 14.3 11.3 12.4 9.2 2.7 -2.4
Retailing 6.6 3.7 5.4 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.4 7.6 4.8 7.9 3.7 -0.7 -2.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/43QAX88eb