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Results of the August 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index in Further Decline

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in August to 106.3 points from 108.0 in the previous month. The firms were again less satisfied with their current business situation. Also with regard to the further course of business, they are more sceptical than in the previous month. The German economy continues to lose steam.

 In manufacturing the business climate index fell to its lowest level since July 2013. The current business situation was assessed less favourably for the third time in succession. The outlook for the coming months also deteriorated noticeably. Less stimulus is expected from export business.

In wholesaling the business climate index fell to its lowest level in a year. The wholesalers were significantly less satisfied with their current business situation. The majority of expectations are now slightly pessimistic for the first time since July 2013. In retailing as well, the business climate deteriorated significantly. The assessments of the current situation took a clear turn for the worse. Future business developments were again assessed somewhat more sceptically.

In construction the business climate index rose slightly. The construction companies were slightly more satisfied with their current situation than in July. In addition, they are slightly more optimistic regarding the business outlook.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 08/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Ifo Business Survey for August 2014 in Brief: The German Economy Continues to Lose Steam | Sep 5, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 08/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/14
Climate 107.8 107.8 107.5 109.4 109.5 110.6 111.2 110.7 111.2 110.4 109.7 108.0 106.3
Situation 112.2 111.4 111.4 112.3 111.6 112.4 114.4 115.2 115.3 114.8 114.8 112.9 111.1
Expectations 103.5 104.4 103.9 106.6 107.4 108.8 108.2 106.3 107.2 106.1 104.8 103.4 101.7
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 08/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/1407/1408/14
Trade and Industry 8.1 8.2 7.7 11.3 11.5 13.6 14.8 13.7 14.7 13.1 11.8 8.6 5.3
Manufacturing 11.5 12.1 11.3 15.5 15.5 17.7 19.7 19.0 20.1 18.9 15.6 12.4 9.5
Construction -4.0 -6.0 -5.9 -2.9 1.3 2.3 0.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.1 -3.7 -5.5 -5.3
Wholesaling 8.7 5.6 8.1 11.8 9.4 15.3 12.5 10.8 14.3 11.3 12.5 9.3 2.8
Retailing 3.4 6.4 3.7 5.3 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.4 7.6 4.8 8.0 3.8 -0.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


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