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Results of the June 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Falls

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell to 109.7 points in June from 110.4 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation remained good, but companies were less optimistic about future business developments. The German economy fears the potential impact of the crises in the Ukraine and Iraq.

In manufacturing the business climate index fell considerably. Manufacturers assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favourable than in May. Expectations even fell to their lowest point for over six months. Although the export outlook clouded over considerably, the majority of manufacturers remain optimistic.

In wholesaling the business climate improved. After a sharp drop in May, assessments of the current business situation were far more favourable, but wholesalers are less optimistic about the future. In retailing the business climate brightened considerably. Assessments of the current business situation reached their highest level in over two years. The business outlook also improved.

In construction the business climate index improved slightly after four successive decreases. Assessments of the current business situation remained almost unchanged at a high level. Contractors are also somewhat more optimistic about future business developments.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 06/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of June 2014: German Economy Fears Potential Impact of Crises in the Ukraine and Iraq | Jul 4, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 06/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/14
Climate 105.9 106.1 107.6 107.8 107.5 109.4 109.5 110.6 111.3 110.7 111.2 110.4 109.7
Situation 109.4 110.0 112.0 111.4 111.3 112.3 111.6 112.5 114.4 115.2 115.3 114.8 114.8
Expectations 102.5 102.4 103.4 104.4 103.9 106.6 107.4 108.9 108.2 106.3 107.3 106.2 104.8
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 06/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/1403/1404/1405/1406/14
Trade and Industry 4.5 4.9 7.8 8.2 7.7 11.3 11.4 13.6 14.9 13.7 14.8 13.2 11.8
Manufacturing 7.9 7.8 11.2 12.1 11.2 15.4 15.5 17.7 19.7 19.1 20.2 19.0 15.7
Construction 1.1 -1.4 -4.0 -6.0 -5.9 -2.9 1.3 2.4 0.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.0 -3.7
Wholesaling -0.8 -0.3 8.3 5.6 8.1 11.8 9.4 15.3 12.6 10.9 14.4 11.4 12.5
Retailing -1.7 2.8 3.1 6.3 3.6 5.3 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.5 7.7 4.9 8.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3cqvfKBzy