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Results of the February 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Rise

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany continued to rise in February. Assessments of the current business situation were significantly better than last month. Expectations regarding future business developments dipped slightly, but remain optimistic. The German economy is holding its own in a changeable global climate.

The business climate in manufacturing improved for the fourth month in succession. Manufacturers are far more satisfied with the current business situation. Their confidence in future business developments weakened slightly, but remained high. Although the export outlook clouded over, the majority of manufacturers remain optimistic.

After last month’s sharp increase, the business climate index in wholesaling decreased slightly. Wholesalers were once again clearly more satisfied with their current business situation. However, they are no longer quite as positive about future developments. In retailing, the business climate index rose significantly. The current business situation improved, with assessments reaching their highest level since spring 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments also continued to brighten.

The business climate index in construction fell slightly. Assessments of the current business situation are less favourable, but remain at a high level. Last month’s optimism regarding the next six months also faded somewhat.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 02/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of February 2014: German Economy Optimistic, but Not Euphoric | Mar 11, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 02/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/14
Climate 107.4 106.7 104.3 105.7 105.9 106.1 107.6 107.8 107.5 109.4 109.5 110.6 111.3
Situation 110.4 110.0 107.2 110.0 109.4 110.0 112.0 111.4 111.3 112.3 111.6 112.4 114.4
Expectations 104.6 103.6 101.4 101.6 102.5 102.3 103.4 104.4 103.9 106.6 107.4 108.9 108.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 02/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/1402/14
Trade and Industry 7.5 6.2 1.4 4.1 4.5 4.9 7.8 8.2 7.7 11.3 11.5 13.7 14.9
Manufacturing 9.9 8.9 3.3 6.2 7.8 7.8 11.2 12.1 11.3 15.5 15.6 17.8 19.8
Construction 6.6 7.1 2.3 1.2 1.1 -1.4 -4.0 -6.0 -5.9 -2.9 1.3 2.5 0.7
Wholesaling 6.6 0.1 -5.3 1.8 -0.8 -0.3 8.3 5.6 8.1 11.8 9.4 15.3 12.6
Retailing -1.6 -0.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.7 2.9 3.1 6.4 3.6 5.3 4.8 4.3 8.4
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/bzFkrouh