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Results of the January 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved for the third time in succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the New Year.

The business climate index in manufacturing continued to rise. Manufacturers assessed their current business situation far more favourably. Optimism about future business developments increased significantly, partly due to better export expectations. Capacity utilisation rates rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points.

The business climate index in wholesaling increased significantly. Wholesalers were far more satisfied with their current business situation. Optimism regarding the business outlook also rose to a two year high. In retailing, by contrast, the index fell slightly primarily due to downward revisions of assessments of the current business situation. Retailers, however, were somewhat more optimistic about future business developments.

The business climate index in construction continued to rise. Although contractors assessed their current business situation as slightly poorer than last month, expectations improved considerably and reached an even higher level than during the same period last year.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 01/2014", ifo Institut, München, 2014 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of January 2014: German Economy Makes a Promising Start to the New Year | Feb 5, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 01/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/14
Climate 104.2 107.5 106.7 104.3 105.7 105.9 106.1 107.6 107.8 107.5 109.4 109.5 110.6
Situation 108.0 110.5 110.0 107.2 110.0 109.4 110.0 112.0 111.4 111.3 112.3 111.6 112.4
Expectations 100.5 104.6 103.6 101.4 101.6 102.5 102.3 103.4 104.4 103.9 106.6 107.4 108.9
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 01/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/1301/14
Trade and Industry 1.2 7.7 6.2 1.4 4.2 4.5 4.9 7.8 8.2 7.7 11.3 11.4 13.7
Manufacturing 2.8 10.1 8.9 3.3 6.2 7.8 7.8 11.2 12.1 11.2 15.4 15.5 17.7
Construction -0.6 6.8 7.0 2.3 1.2 1.1 -1.4 -4.1 -6.0 -6.0 -2.9 1.3 2.5
Wholesaling -1.9 6.7 0.1 -5.3 1.8 -0.8 -0.3 8.3 5.6 8.1 11.8 9.4 15.3
Retailing -1.1 -1.4 -0.1 -1.2 0.3 -1.6 2.9 3.1 6.4 3.6 5.3 4.7 4.2
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3vivvKWvx