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Results of the December 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

The Ifo business climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again. Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less favourable, but firms expressed greater optimism about future business developments. The German economy is in a festive mood.

The business climate in manufacturing continued to improve. Favourable assessments of the current business situation were scaled back somewhat, but manufacturers’ optimism rose to its highest level since spring 2011. Although export expectations fell slightly, they nevertheless signal that firms reckon with positive impulses from abroad.

The business climate index fell in wholesaling. The current business situation was assessed significantly less positively by wholesalers, but they are nevertheless slightly more optimistic about future business developments. The index also fell slightly in retailing. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest value since spring of last year. Looking ahead to post-Christmas business, however, the mood among retailers deteriorated somewhat.

The business climate index in construction continued to rise. Assessments of the current business situation improved. Contractors are also very confident about their future business outlook.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute
 

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 12/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of December 2013: Optimistic Outlook for the First Six Months of 2014 | Jan 14, 2014 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 12/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/13
Climate 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4 105.7 105.9 106.2 107.6 107.8 107.4 109.3 109.5
Situation 107.1 108.1 110.2 109.9 107.3 110.0 109.4 110.1 112.0 111.4 111.3 112.2 111.6
Expectations 98.0 100.6 104.6 103.6 101.5 101.6 102.6 102.4 103.3 104.3 103.7 106.4 107.4
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 12/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/1312/13
Trade and Industry -2.1 1.4 7.4 6.1 1.6 4.2 4.6 5.1 7.8 8.1 7.4 11.0 11.4
Manufacturing -2.7 2.9 9.7 8.7 3.5 6.3 8.0 8.1 11.3 12.0 11.1 15.1 15.3
Construction -6.7 -0.1 6.9 7.1 2.6 1.1 1.0 -1.4 -4.2 -6.3 -6.3 -3.2 1.3
Wholesaling 3.3 -1.4 6.3 0.0 -5.1 1.9 -0.8 0.0 7.8 5.4 7.8 11.8 9.5
Retailing -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -1.3 3.1 2.7 6.4 3.3 5.1 4.8
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/pEBXvTwx