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Results of the November 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Improves

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months with confidence.

The business climate indicator in manufacturing rose considerably. Assessments of the current business situation were more positive than last month. Manufacturers’ business expectations were clearly more optimistic and they expect stronger impulses from exports.

The business climate improved at both levels of trade. Retailers were far more optimistic about their future business developments, while assessments of the current business situation remained largely unchanged. In wholesaling firms were more satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed far greater confidence in future business developments.

After seven consecutive decreases, the business climate index in construction rose considerably. Although assessments of the current business situation are somewhat less positive, contractors are far more optimistic about their future business outlook than last month.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute
 

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 11/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of November 2013 | Dec 19, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/13
Climate 101.5 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4 105.7 105.9 106.2 107.6 107.8 107.4 109.3
Situation 108.0 107.1 108.1 110.2 109.9 107.3 110.0 109.4 110.1 112.0 111.4 111.3 112.2
Expectations 95.3 98.1 100.7 104.6 103.6 101.5 101.6 102.6 102.4 103.3 104.2 103.7 106.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/1311/13
Trade and Industry -4.0 -2.0 1.4 7.4 6.1 1.6 4.2 4.6 5.1 7.7 8.1 7.4 11.0
Manufacturing -6.3 -2.6 2.9 9.7 8.7 3.5 6.3 7.9 8.1 11.3 12.0 11.0 15.0
Construction -7.3 -6.5 -0.1 6.9 7.1 2.6 1.1 1.0 -1.5 -4.2 -6.3 -6.4 -3.3
Wholesaling 4.6 3.4 -1.4 6.3 0.0 -5.1 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 7.8 5.4 7.8 11.8
Retailing -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -1.3 3.1 2.7 6.4 3.3 5.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3fML8Qu79