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Results of the October 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Falls Slightly

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell slightly for the first time after five increases. Firms assessed their business outlook slightly less optimistically than last month. Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less positive, but remain above average. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.

The business climate indicator in manufacturing fell. Assessments of the current business situation were less positive. Although business expectations fell slightly, manufacturers nevertheless remain optimistic about future business developments. Capacity utilisation remained unchanged. Export expectations rose to their highest value of the year.

After last month’s sharp increase, the business climate index in retailing dropped. Retailers assessed their current business situation fractionally less positively. They also expressed greater scepticism about their future business developments. In wholesaling the business climate brightened. While wholesalers expressed slightly less optimism about future business developments, they were considerably more satisfied with their current business situation.

In construction the business climate index edged downwards. While assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less favourable than last month, the future business outlook brightened slightly.

Kai Carstensen
Director of the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 10/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of October 2013 | Nov 19, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 10/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/13
Climate 100.1 101.6 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4 105.7 105.9 106.2 107.6 107.7 107.4
Situation 107.3 108.1 107.1 108.1 110.2 109.9 107.3 110.0 109.4 110.1 112.0 111.4 111.3
Expectations 93.4 95.4 98.1 100.7 104.6 103.6 101.5 101.6 102.5 102.4 103.3 104.2 103.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 10/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/1309/1310/13
Trade and Industry -6.7 -3.9 -2.1 1.4 7.4 6.1 1.6 4.2 4.6 5.0 7.7 8.0 7.3
Manufacturing -6.9 -6.1 -2.7 2.9 9.7 8.7 3.5 6.3 7.9 8.0 11.2 11.9 10.9
Construction -11.3 -7.2 -6.5 -0.1 6.9 7.1 2.6 1.1 0.9 -1.5 -4.3 -6.3 -6.4
Wholesaling -3.4 4.8 3.4 -1.4 6.3 0.0 -5.1 1.9 -0.9 -0.1 7.8 5.3 7.7
Retailing -5.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -1.3 3.0 2.7 6.4 3.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/dYZC53mv