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Results of the August 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany continued to rise. Companies are more satisfied with their current business situation. Their optimism regarding future business developments – although slightly cautious – also grew. The German economy moved up a gear.

The business climate indicator in manufacturing rose significantly to its highest value since April 2012. Assessments of the current business situation were considerably better than last month. Business expectations also continued to brighten. Firms expect stronger impulses from export business.

The business climate index in retailing edged downwards. This is primarily due to somewhat less positive assessments of the current business situation, while business expectations brightened slightly. In wholesaling, on the other hand, the business climate improved significantly. Wholesalers are far more satisfied with their current business situation. Furthermore, business expectations are positive for the first time since April 2012.

In construction the business climate index fell, but nevertheless remains above its long-term average. Assessments of the current business situation are slightly less favourable than last month. Contractors are more cautious about future business developments.

Kai Carstensen
Director of the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 08/2013 ", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of August 2013 | Sep 18, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 08/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/13
Climate 102.2 101.4 100.1 101.6 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4 105.7 105.9 106.2 107.5
Situation 110.9 110.2 107.3 108.1 107.1 108.1 110.2 109.9 107.3 110.0 109.4 110.1 112.0
Expectations 94.1 93.3 93.4 95.4 98.1 100.7 104.6 103.6 101.6 101.6 102.5 102.4 103.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 08/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/1308/13
Trade and Industry -2.7 -4.2 -6.7 -3.9 -2.1 1.4 7.3 6.0 1.5 4.1 4.5 5.0 7.6
Manufacturing -1.5 -4.1 -6.9 -6.2 -2.7 2.9 9.6 8.6 3.4 6.2 7.8 7.9 11.1
Construction -6.6 -9.9 -11.5 -7.3 -6.5 -0.2 6.9 7.1 2.7 1.1 0.9 -1.5 -4.2
Wholesaling -2.9 0.0 -3.2 4.8 3.4 -1.5 6.2 0.0 -5.2 1.8 -0.9 -0.2 7.7
Retailing -5.0 -4.1 -5.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -1.4 3.0 2.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3ApSAmJdh