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Results of the July 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Edges Upwards

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose for the third time in succes-sion. Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month. Although the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.

The business climate indicator in manufacturing rose slightly. Satisfaction with the current business situation increased for the third month in succession. Business expectations declined minimally, but remain positive. Machinery capacity utilisation rose by more than one percentage point. After last month’s sharp increase, export expectations fell somewhat. Firms nevertheless expect expansionary impulses from export business.

The business climate index rose at both levels of trade. In retailing firms are far more satisfied with their current business situation. Expectations reached their highest level since April 2012. Wholesalers also assessed their current business situation more positively than last month. However, they were more sceptical about future business developments.

In construction the business climate indicator continued to fall. Contractors are slightly more cautious about future business developments than last month. They are also somewhat less positive about their current business situation, which nevertheless remains very good.
 

Kai Carstensen
Director of the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 07/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of July 2013 | Aug 6, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 07/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/13
Climate 103.2 102.2 101.4 100.1 101.6 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4 105.7 105.9 106.2
Situation 111.5 111.0 110.2 107.3 108.1 107.1 108.1 110.2 109.9 107.3 110.0 109.4 110.1
Expectations 95.5 94.2 93.3 93.4 95.4 98.1 100.7 104.6 103.6 101.6 101.6 102.5 102.4
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 07/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/1307/13
Trade and Industry -0.8 -2.6 -4.2 -6.7 -3.9 -2.1 1.4 7.3 6.0 1.5 4.1 4.4 4.9
Manufacturing -2.2 -1.4 -4.1 -6.9 -6.2 -2.7 2.9 9.6 8.6 3.4 6.2 7.8 7.9
Construction -6.5 -6.8 -9.9 -11.5 -7.3 -6.5 -0.2 6.9 7.1 2.7 1.1 1.0 -1.4
Wholesaling 4.0 -2.6 0.0 -3.2 4.8 3.4 -1.5 6.2 -0.1 -5.2 1.7 -1.0 -0.3
Retailing 4.8 -5.0 -4.1 -5.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -1.4 2.9
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe @ ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3E9D2L3DK