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Results of the June 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises Slightly

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany continued to rise. Although assessments of the current business situation are slightly less positive, firms are increasingly optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. The German economy holds its course.

The business climate indicator in manufacturing continued last month’s increase. Manufacturers are once again slightly more satisfied with their current business situation. They are also clearly more optimistic about future business developments. Export expectations in particular have increased sharply.

In wholesaling, the business climate index fell. Wholesalers are far less satisfied with their current business situation and more sceptical about their business outlook. The business climate also cooled down slightly in retailing. Retailers are no longer quite as satisfied with their current business situation as last month. Their business outlook, however, continued to brighten.

In construction the business climate index edged downwards. Although contractors report a slight improvement in their current business situation, they are somewhat less optimistic about future business developments. 

Kai Carstensen
Head of Department Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 06/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of June 2013 | Jul 10, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 06/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/13
Climate 105.1 103.2 102.2 101.4 100.1 101.6 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4 105.7 105.9
Situation 113.8 111.5 111.0 110.2 107.3 108.1 107.1 108.1 110.2 109.9 107.3 110.0 109.4
Expectations 97.1 95.5 94.2 93.3 93.4 95.4 98.1 100.7 104.6 103.6 101.6 101.6 102.5
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 06/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/1306/13
Trade and Industry 2.9 -0.8 -2.6 -4.2 -6.7 -4.0 -2.1 1.4 7.3 6.0 1.5 4.1 4.4
Manufacturing 4.4 -2.2 -1.4 -4.1 -6.9 -6.2 -2.7 2.9 9.6 8.6 3.4 6.1 7.8
Construction -4.7 -6.7 -6.8 -9.9 -11.5 -7.3 -6.5 -0.1 6.9 7.1 2.7 1.2 1.0
Wholesaling 5.2 4.0 -2.6 0.0 -3.2 4.8 3.4 -1.5 6.2 -0.1 -5.2 1.7 -1.0
Retailing 0.4 5.0 -4.9 -4.1 -5.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -1.4
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.