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Results of the April 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Falls

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell in April. Although the majority of companies assessed their current business situation as good, they were far more cautious than last month. Their expectations regarding future business developments were also lower. The German economy is taking a breather.

In manufacturing the business climate indicator fell significantly. Manufacturers were less satisfied with their current business situation. The six-month business outlook clouded over once again. Capacity utilisation edged downwards. Export expectations rose after last month’s decrease.

In wholesaling last month’s sharp decline continued in April. Wholesalers expressed far greater pessimism about both their current business situation and their business outlook. In retailing, on the other hand, the business climate index only edged down slightly. Retailers were somewhat more satisfied with their current business situation. However, they expressed greater pessimism about their future business developments.

After hitting a historical high last month, the business climate index in construction fell. Construction companies assessed their current business situation slightly less positively. They also lowered their expectations with regard to future business developments.

Kai Carstensen
Head of Department Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 04/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of April 2013 | May 14, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 04/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/13
Climate 109.7 106.6 105.1 103.2 102.3 101.4 100.1 101.5 102.5 104.3 107.4 106.7 104.4
Situation 117.4 113.1 113.8 111.5 111.0 110.2 107.3 108.1 107.1 108.0 110.2 109.9 107.2
Expectations 102.5 100.5 97.1 95.5 94.2 93.3 93.4 95.4 98.1 100.7 104.7 103.6 101.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 04/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/13
Trade and Industry 11.8 5.8 3.0 -0.8 -2.6 -4.2 -6.8 -4.0 -2.1 1.3 7.3 6.0 1.5
Manufacturing 15.1 9.9 4.5 -2.1 -1.3 -4.1 -6.9 -6.2 -2.7 2.8 9.6 8.6 3.4
Construction -4.1 -5.2 -4.8 -6.7 -6.8 -10.0 -11.5 -7.3 -6.6 -0.2 6.8 7.2 2.8
Wholesaling 12.8 7.7 5.2 4.0 -2.6 0.0 -3.2 4.8 3.4 -1.4 6.2 -0.1 -5.2
Retailing 10.2 -3.8 0.4 5.0 -4.9 -4.1 -5.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/gSHWuvtc