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Results of the January 2013 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose for the third time in succession. Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat more positive after deteriorating last month. Future business perspectives improved considerably. The German economy made a promising start to the New Year.

In manufacturing the business climate indicator continued to rise. Manufacturers are more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. The improvement in expectations with regard to future business developments continued into the New Year. Optimism is returning. After three successive declines, capacity utilisation rates also rose.

In wholesaling, on the other hand, the business climate clouded over. Wholesalers are less satisfied with their current business situation and slightly more pessimistic about future business developments. In retailing the business climate indicator rose somewhat. This was due to a slightly more positive assessment of the business situation, while retailers’ business expectations remained unchanged.

In construction the business climate index rose sharply. This was primarily due to far more optimistic expectations, which last reached such a high level in March 2012. Assessments of the current business situation also improved.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 01/2013", ifo Institut, München, 2013 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. Results of the Ifo Business Survey (Summary) of January 2013 | Feb 13, 2013 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 01/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/13
Climate 108.2 109.6 109.8 109.7 106.7 105.2 103.2 102.2 101.4 100.0 101.5 102.4 104.2
Situation 116.3 117.4 117.4 117.3 113.1 113.8 111.5 111.0 110.2 107.3 108.0 107.1 108.0
Expectations 100.7 102.4 102.7 102.6 100.6 97.1 95.5 94.1 93.2 93.3 95.3 98.0 100.5
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 01/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/13
Trade and Industry 8.9 11.6 11.9 11.8 5.9 3.0 -0.8 -2.7 -4.3 -6.9 -4.1 -2.3 1.2
Manufacturing 13.1 14.3 13.8 15.0 9.9 4.5 -2.2 -1.4 -4.3 -7.1 -6.4 -2.9 2.6
Construction -4.4 3.5 2.2 -3.9 -5.1 -4.7 -6.6 -6.8 -10.0 -11.6 -7.4 -6.7 -0.3
Wholesaling 10.8 14.7 12.9 12.5 7.7 5.1 3.9 -2.6 -0.1 -3.3 4.8 3.4 -1.5
Retailing -0.4 3.6 10.6 10.2 -3.9 0.4 5.0 -5.0 -4.1 -5.8 -0.5 -1.3 -1.2
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/M25tMuHf