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Results of the November 2012 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Brightens Slightly

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose again after six successive decreases. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They were also far less pessimistic about future business developments. The German economy is holding up in the face of the euro crisis.

 In manufacturing the business climate index rose slightly following a six-month decline. Companies expressed slightly greater satisfaction with their current business situation. They were also less pessimistic than last month with regard to the six-month business outlook. Export expectations were positive for the first time in three months.

The business climate index in wholesaling increased sharply. The wholesalers surveyed reported a dramatic improvement in their current business situation and expressed far less pessimism regarding future developments. The business climate also brightened in retailing. While assessments of the current business situation were somewhat poorer, retailers expect business to pick up significantly in the future.

In construction the business climate recovered considerably. Construction companies reported a clear improvement in their current business situation and were also more confident about future business developments.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 11/2012", ifo Institut, München, 2012 | Details | PDF Download

Summary of the Results

  1. ifo Konjunkturtest November 2012 in Kürze | Dec 12, 2012 | Information service | Details

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1112/1101/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/12
Climate 106.8 107.3 108.3 109.6 109.7 109.7 106.7 105.1 103.2 102.3 101.4 100.0 101.4
Situation 116.8 116.7 116.3 117.4 117.3 117.4 113.1 113.8 111.5 111.1 110.2 107.2 108.1
Expectations 97.6 98.7 100.9 102.3 102.6 102.6 100.7 97.1 95.5 94.1 93.2 93.2 95.2
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 11/1112/1101/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/12
Trade and Industry 6.2 7.3 9.2 11.7 11.9 11.9 6.1 3.0 -0.8 -2.5 -4.3 -7.0 -4.2
Manufacturing 9.3 9.2 13.5 14.3 13.9 15.1 10.3 4.7 -2.1 -1.3 -4.3 -7.2 -6.5
Construction -8.7 -6.2 -3.6 3.4 2.1 -4.0 -5.3 -4.7 -6.7 -7.0 -10.1 -11.8 -7.5
Wholesaling 9.9 11.3 10.6 14.9 12.7 12.5 7.8 4.8 3.8 -2.2 0.0 -3.2 4.9
Retailing 1.4 5.7 -0.4 3.6 10.5 10.5 -3.8 0.2 5.0 -4.8 -4.1 -5.8 -0.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/vJyGY35f