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Results of the August 2012 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany continued to fall in August. The decline, however, was weaker than last month. The current business situation deteriorated only slightly, but companies expressed greater pessimism regarding future business developments. The German economy continues to falter.

The business climate in manufacturing brightened again after three successive declines. This is due to the fact that companies’ assessments of the current business situation recovered slightly after last month’s sharp downturn. However, their business expectations continued to deteriorate. For the first time in almost three years export expectations are slightly negative.

The business climate cooled down considerably in both retailing and wholesaling. Retailers assessed both the current business situation and their future business outlook far more unfavourably than last month. The wholesalers surveyed reported a similar picture. Assessments of the current business situation weakened significantly and expectations declined for the sixth month in succession.

The business climate indicator in construction dropped slightly. The construction firms surveyed reported a small improvement in their current business situation, but their six-month business outlook continued to deteriorate.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 08/2012 ", ifo Institut, München, 2012 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series


Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
 08/1109/1110/1111/1112/1101/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/12
Climate 108.8 107.5 106.6 106.8 107.3 108.3 109.6 109.8 109.8 106.8 105.2 103.2 102.3
Situation 118.1 118.0 116.8 116.7 116.7 116.3 117.4 117.4 117.4 113.2 113.8 111.5 111.2
Expectations 100.2 98.0 97.2 97.7 98.7 100.9 102.3 102.6 102.6 100.7 97.2 95.5 94.2
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 08/1109/1110/1111/1112/1101/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/12
Trade and Industry 10.0 7.6 5.7 6.2 7.2 9.1 11.6 11.9 11.9 6.2 3.1 -0.7 -2.4
Manufacturing 15.7 10.6 9.9 9.1 9.1 13.4 14.3 13.9 15.2 10.4 4.8 -2.0 -1.2
Construction -6.3 -9.6 -13.1 -8.7 -6.2 -3.6 3.3 2.1 -4.0 -5.2 -4.7 -6.7 -6.9
Wholesaling 7.4 13.1 6.8 10.2 11.3 10.6 14.9 12.7 12.5 7.8 4.9 3.8 -2.1
Retailing 1.4 2.9 2.4 1.5 5.7 -0.4 3.7 10.6 10.6 -3.7 0.2 5.1 -4.7
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/7GbBxFJa