Main Content

Results of the July 2012 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in July. After improving last month, assessments of the current business situation were more cautious again this month. Expectations in terms of the business outlook were also more pessimistic. The euro crisis is having an increasingly negative impact on the German economy.

The business climate in manufacturing deteriorated significantly. More specifically, manufacturers assessed their current business situation much less favourably than last month. Capacity utilisation was clearly lower. In terms of the business outlook manufacturers’ expectations also fell considerably. Export expectations, on the other hand, declined only slightly.

Developments in retailing offer a ray of hope, as the business climate indicator continued to rise at this level of trade. Retailers assessed both their current business situation and their six-month business outlook more favourably. In wholesaling, on the other hand, the business climate continued to deteriorate. Wholesalers reported an improved business situation, but expressed greater pessimism regarding future business developments.

After rising last month, the business climate indicator in construction dropped in July. While assessments of the current business situation improved slightly, the construction firms surveyed are considerably more sceptical about future business developments.

Results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details (in German)

  1. "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 07/2012", ifo Institut, München, 2012 | Details | PDF Download

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Image Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index)

Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Image Business Situation and Expectations by Sector (Balances)

Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Image Ifo Business-Cycle Clock

Time series

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
  07/11 08/11 09/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12
Climate 113.0 108.6 107.5 106.6 106.8 107.3 108.3 109.6 109.8 109.8 106.8 105.2 103.3
Situation 121.5 118.0 118.0 116.8 116.7 116.7 116.3 117.4 117.4 117.4 113.2 113.9 111.6
Expectations 105.1 100.0 98.0 97.2 97.7 98.7 100.9 102.3 102.7 102.6 100.8 97.2 95.6
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
 07/1108/1109/1110/1111/1112/1101/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/12
Trade and Industry 18.2 9.7 7.6 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.1 11.6 11.9 12.0 6.2 3.1 -0.6
Manufacturing 23.6 15.5 10.6 9.9 9.1 9.1 13.5 14.3 13.9 15.3 10.4 4.8 -1.9
Construction -0.7 -6.4 -9.6 -13.1 -8.7 -6.2 -3.6 3.3 2.1 -4.0 -5.2 -4.7 -6.7
Wholesaling 18.5 7.1 13.1 6.7 10.1 11.3 10.6 14.9 12.7 12.6 7.9 5.0 3.9
Retailing 10.7 1.0 2.9 2.4 1.5 5.7 -0.4 3.7 10.6 10.6 -3.7 0.3 5.1
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Explanatory note

The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating the index values, the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2005.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1229
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1463
Email: wohlrabe@ifo.de
Website


Short URL: www.ifo.de/w/3SY6iSNGn