Ifo Economic Forecast: East Germany and Saxony
The monitoring of economic activity has been one of the main tasks of Ifo Dresden since its founding in 1993. In recent years a system for economic forecasting has been developed using data from the Ifo Business Survey in eastern Germany and Saxony.
Twice a year since 2001 Ifo Dresden, in consultation with the business-cycle researchers at the Ifo Institute in Munich, have presented forecasts on the development of the economy and labour market in Saxony and since 2004 for all of eastern Germany. These forecasts are based on Ifo’s summer and winter economic forecasts for all of Germany. The forecasts are presented at a press conference and to the working group Konjunkturbeobachtung Sachsen and published in the journal ifo Dresden berichtet.
Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2015/2016 (2 July 2015)
Jul 2, 2015: Real gross domestic product in eastern Germany (including Berlin) is expected to rise sharply by 1.8 percent this year and by 1.6 percent in 2016. In Saxony economic growth looks set to be slightly higher at 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2016. Private consumption will remain the main economic driver in both years. Positive impulses, however, will also come from a continued upturn in demand for capital goods. Eastern German and Saxon labour demand stands to benefit from the sustained economic expansion, although growth dynamics look set to weaken. The minimum legal wage and precarious demographic developments will curb increases in employment by companies. The shortage of qualified staff in some areas is becoming increasingly obvious. Details