Ifo Economic Forecast: East Germany and Saxony
The monitoring of economic activity has been one of the main tasks of Ifo Dresden since its founding in 1993. In recent years a system for economic forecasting has been developed using data from the Ifo Business Survey in eastern Germany and Saxony.
Twice a year since 2001 Ifo Dresden, in consultation with the business-cycle researchers at the Ifo Institute in Munich, have presented forecasts on the development of the economy and labour market in Saxony and since 2004 for all of eastern Germany. These forecasts are based on Ifo’s summer and winter economic forecasts for all of Germany. The forecasts are presented at a press conference and to the working group Konjunkturbeobachtung Sachsen and published in the journal ifo Dresden berichtet.
Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2014/2015 (17 December 2014)
Dec 17, 2014: Real gross domestic product in Eastern Germany (including Berlin) will grow by 1.3 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Economic growth in the Free State of Saxony is even expected to be slightly higher in both years at 1.8 percent. This is due to an upturn in investment demand on the part of companies, robust developments in consumption and the continued revival of the world economy. The positive trend in the labour market has also clearly lost impetus. An additional headwind over the forecasting period will come from economic policy. In addition to demographic factors, the nationwide minimum wage and the government’s policy of retirement at 63 are expected to constrain growth in employment in the Eastern German Länder. Details