Ifo Economic Forecast
Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Because of the strong links of the German economy to the world economy and in particular to the European economy, a forecast is also made for the European Union and other important countries. A well-founded analysis of the economic situation is the basis of the forecast.
Ifo Economic Forecast 17 June 2015
Jun 17, 2015: The German economy is currently experiencing a sharp upturn. Real domestic product is expected to expand by 1.9% this year and by 1.8% in 2016. Private consumption remains the driver behind the upturn since the revenue outlook of private households is good due to continued improvements in the labour market. However, purchasing power gains thanks to falling oil prices are gradually fading, which is expected to weaken the consumption dynamic slightly over the forecasting period. Corporate investments will grow in an extremely favourable financial environment. The construction boom also looks set to continue. The depreciation of the euro is expected to stimulate exports through the second half of this year. The world economy will subsequently cool down slightly over the course of 2016 and will curb growth in exports. Imports will increase somewhat more quickly than exports due to strong domestic demand. Overall, demand-side impulses will come from the domestic economy just like last year. Details
It is not always possible to forecast the business cycle accurately. Like all predictions, the economic forecasts made by the Ifo Institute also vary to some extent from the official statistics published at a later date. In the interests of transparency, this article documents and evaluates Ifo’s economic forecasts of real gross domestic product (GDP) in reunified Germany since 1991. read on Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts
Economic forecasts are estimates of future economic activity in the overall economy, with a focus on the slowing or speeding up as well as the turning points of economic variables in the course of the business cycle. Economic fluctuations are expressed in terms of the development in real quarterly GDP. read on Ifo Policy Issue: Ifo Economic Forecasts