Ifo Economic Forecast
Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Because of the strong links of the German economy to the world economy and in particular to the European economy, a forecast is also made for the European Union and other important countries. A well-founded analysis of the economic situation is the basis of the forecast.
Ifo Economic Forecast 13 December 2012
Dec 13, 2012: The German economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter of 2012, before staging a recovery that is expected to be modest initially in 2013. These are the indications of the Ifo Business Climate Index, which recently rose clearly after showing no signs of any upswing in the previous months. The euro crisis is responsible for the poor economic situation at present. Real gross domestic product, at a 2/3 uncertainty interval of -0.6 % to 2.0 %, should therefore only in-crease by 0.7 % on annual average in 2013. Boosted by domestic demand, the economy looks set to pick up again in the year ahead, as long as the European debt crisis does not escalate any further. However, no significant growth in employment is expected during this period. Details
Economic forecasts are estimates of future economic activity in the overall economy, with a focus on the slowing or speeding up as well as the turning points of economic variables in the course of the business cycle. Economic fluctuations are expressed in terms of the development in real quarterly GDP. read on Ifo Policy Issue: Ifo Economic Forecasts