Ifo Economic Forecast
Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Because of the strong links of the German economy to the world economy and in particular to the European economy, a forecast is also made for the European Union and other important countries. A well-founded analysis of the economic situation is the basis of the forecast.
Ifo Economic Forecast 9 December 2015
Dec 9, 2015: The modest upturn seen in the German economy for some time is expected to continue. Real gross domestic product will increase by 1.7% this year, and by 1.9% in 2016. The growth rate is subsequently expected to fall to 1.7% in 2017. Private consumption will continue to drive the upswing, which will be boosted by a renewed drop in oil prices, higher earnings and transfers and a lighter tax and social charges burden on households. In addition, expansive stimuli from fiscal and social policy will be stronger, not least due to far higher government expenditure on consumption and transfers related to the influx of refugees. While construction investment is expected to grow sharply over the forecasting period, equipment investment will only see a modest increase, despite favourable financing conditions. Since imports are expected to rise more than exports due to forecasts of strong domestic demand, there will be almost no stimuli from foreign trade. Details
It is not always possible to forecast the business cycle accurately. Like all predictions, the economic forecasts made by the Ifo Institute also vary to some extent from the official statistics published at a later date. In the interests of transparency, this article documents and evaluates Ifo’s economic forecasts of real gross domestic product (GDP) in reunified Germany since 1991. read on Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts
Economic forecasts are estimates of future economic activity in the overall economy, with a focus on the slowing or speeding up as well as the turning points of economic variables in the course of the business cycle. Economic fluctuations are expressed in terms of the development in real quarterly GDP. read on Ifo Policy Issue: Ifo Economic Forecasts