Ifo Economic Forecast
Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Because of the strong links of the German economy to the world economy and in particular to the European economy, a forecast is also made for the European Union and other important countries. A well-founded analysis of the economic situation is the basis of the forecast.
Ifo Economic Forecast 26 June 2014
Jun 26, 2014: The upturn in the German economy is continuing. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2.0% this year and by 2.2% in 2015. As in 2013, the upturn is driven by domestic demand. Growth in equipment investment will accelerate due to high capacity utilisation rates, necessitating investments in replacements and expansion. Construction investment will also continue to rise significantly, driven by a reluctance to invest abroad and low interest rates. Private consumption is expected to increase at a similar pace as real disposable income levels. Export growth will accelerate thanks to an improvement in the world economy. Imports, however, will grow at an even faster rate due to the strong expansion of domestic demand. Details
It is not always possible to forecast the business cycle accurately. Like all predictions, the economic forecasts made by the Ifo Institute also vary to some extent from the official statistics published at a later date. In the interests of transparency, this article documents and evaluates Ifo’s economic forecasts of real gross domestic product (GDP) in reunified Germany since 1991. read on Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts
Economic forecasts are estimates of future economic activity in the overall economy, with a focus on the slowing or speeding up as well as the turning points of economic variables in the course of the business cycle. Economic fluctuations are expressed in terms of the development in real quarterly GDP. read on Ifo Policy Issue: Ifo Economic Forecasts