Joint Economic Analyses
Twice a year, in the spring and autumn, the Joint Economic Forecast Project Team prepares a report on the state of economic activity in the world and in the German economy.
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2015
Oct 8, 2015: The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product will increase by 1.8 percent in 2015 and in 2016 respectively. Growth will be driven by private consumption. In view of the world economy’s modest growth, exports are only expected to rise slightly, especially as the stimulating effect of the euro’s depreciation gradually starts to fade. There will be a more rapid expansion in employment, although unemployment is expected to grow slightly in 2016 as the large number of refugees currently arriving in Germany gradually impacts the labour market. Public budgets are expected to post a surplus of 13 billion euros in 2016. This will be significantly lower than the surplus of around 23 billion euros forecast for 2015, mainly due to additional expenditure related to tackling the influx of refugees. Details