Latest CESifo Working Papers

2431 Alfons J. Weichenrieder and Tina Klautke, Taxes and the Efficiency Costs of Capital
Distortions                           

Tax neutrality towards alternative financing instruments for corporate investment is a ubiquitous demand in the political debate. At the same time, the literature is surprisingly silent about the magnitude of possible efficiency costs of a departure from tax neutrality. Against this background, the present paper discusses the theory of capital structure and provides back-of-the-envelope calculations of the possible efficiency cost of a tax distortion of the debt-equity decision. Download

2432 Andreas Knabe and Ronnie Schöb, Minimum Wage Incidence: The Case for Germany
[See article in this issue of the Newsletter]

Using data from the 2006 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), this paper analyzes how a minimum wage affects employment, wage inequality, public expenditures, and aggregate income in the low-wage sector. It is shown that a statutory minimum wage of EUR 7.50 per hour would cost 840,000 low-paid jobs and increases the fiscal burden by about EUR 4 billion per year, while household income rises only by EUR 1.1 billion per year. Poor households, i.e. those eligible for Unemployment Benefits II, do not benefit from a minimum wage at all. Comparing the effects of a minimum wage with different types of wage subsidies that require the same additional public expenditures, the government can ensure more favorable employment – depending on the subsidies’ incidence – and income effects. Wage subsidies also allow a more equal income distribution than statutory minimum wages. Combining a minimum wage with a wage subsidy, similar to the French minimum wage system, is extremely costly while such a policy is inferior to wage subsidies in all respects. Download

2433 Kurt R. Brekke and Odd Rune Straume, Pharmaceutical Patents: Incentives for R&D or Marketing?

We analyse how a patent-holding pharmaceutical firm may strategically use advertising of existing drugs  to affect R&D investments in new (differentiated) drugs, and thereby affect the probability distribution of future market structures in the industry. Within a fairly general model framework, we derive exact conditions for advertising and R&D being substitute strategies for the incumbent firm and show that it may overinvest in advertising to reduce the incentive for an entrant to invest in R&D, thereby reducing the probability of a new product on the market. In a more specific setting of informative advertising, we show that such overinvestment incentives are always present, and that more generous patent protection implies that a larger share of the patent rent is spent on marketing, relative to R&D. Download

2434 Scott Alan Carson, Geography, Insolation, and Institutional Change in 19th Century African-American and White Stature in Southern States

The use of height data to measure living standards is now a well-established method in the economic literature. While much is known about 19th century black legal and material conditions, less is known about how 19th century biological conditions were related to the physical environment and institutional change. Although modern blacks and whites reach similar terminal statures when brought to maturity under similar biological conditions, 19th century African-American statures in Southern states were consistently shorter than whites, indicating a uniquely 19th century phenomenon may have influenced black stature growth. It is geography and direct sunlight (insolation) that present a striking attribute of 19th century black and white statures, and greater insolation is documented here to be associated with taller black and white statures. Download

2435 Emilia Del Bono and Daniela Vuri, Job Mobility and the Gender Wage Gap in Italy

This paper investigates the way in which job mobility contributes to the emergence of a gender wage gap in the Italian labour market. We show that men experience higher wage growth than women during the first 10 years of their career, and that this difference is particularly large when workers move across firms. This gender mobility penalty is robust to the inclusion of individual, job and firm characteristics, to different ways of accounting for individual unobserved heterogeneity, and is mainly found for voluntary job moves. Exploring the wage growth of job movers, we find that a significant gender wage penalty emerges when workers move to larger firms. This might be explained by the fact that bigger establishments offer jobs more highly valued by women than men or that the relationship between job satisfaction and firm size is less negative for women than men. Using data on job satisfaction, we find evidence for the latter hypothesis as well as some indication that wages and fringe benefits compensate for lower levels of job satisfaction in larger firms, but that this is so only for men. Download

2436 Marco Angrisani, Antonio Guarino, Steffen Huck and Nathan Larson, No-Trade in the Laboratory

We test the no-trade theorem in a laboratory financial market where subjects can trade an asset whose value is unknown. Subjects receive clues on the asset value and then set a bid and an ask at which they are willing to buy or to sell from the other participants. In treatments with no gains from trade, theory predicts no trading activity, whereas, in treatments with gains, trade becomes theoretically possible. Our experimental results show that subjects fail to reach the no-trade equilibrium by pure introspection, but they learn to approach it over time, through market feedback and learning. Download

2437 Josse Delfgaauw and Robert Dur, Managerial Talent, Motivation, and Self-Selection into Public Management

The quality of public management is a recurrent concern in many countries. Calls to attract the economy’s best and brightest managers to the public sector abound. This paper studies self-selection into managerial and non-managerial positions in the public and private sector, using a model of a perfectly competitive economy where people differ in managerial ability and in public service motivation. We find that, if demand for public sector output is not too high, the equilibrium return to managerial ability is always highest in the private sector. As a result, relatively many of the more able managers self-select into the private sector. Since this outcome is efficient, our analysis implies that attracting a more able managerial workforce to the public sector by increasing remuneration to private-sector levels is not costefficient. Download

2438 Christian Bauer and Wolfgang Buchholz, How Changing Prudence and Risk Aversion Affect

Optimal Saving We show how optimal saving in a two-period model is affected when prudence and risk aversion of the underlying utility function change. Increasing prudence alone will induce higher savings only if, for certain combinations of the interest rate and the pure time discount rate, there is distributional neutrality between the two periods. Otherwise, changes of risk aversion that affect the distribution between the periods must also be taken into account. Download

2439 Erich Battistin, Clara Graziano and Bruno M. Parigi, Connections and Performance in
Bankers’ Turnover: Better Wed over the Mixen than over the Moor

In this paper we study top executive turnover in Italian Banks over the period 1993-2001. We relate the probability of survival of top executives (Presidents, CEOs and General Managers) to bank performance and the manager’s local connections, controlling for (observable and unobservable) bank and manager characteristics by exploiting longitudinal information on bankmanager appointments. We measure the extent? of managers’ local connections by the distance between the province of the bank’s headquarters and the manager’s province of birth. We show that top managers tend to be local in the sense that the distribution of this distance is heavily skewed towards zero. On the basis of this evidence, we address two questions. First, we investigate whether connections affect the duration of the appointment at the bank. Second, we ask whether connections entrench managers at the expense of the bank’s performance. We find that connections generally increase the probabilities of managers surviving at their banks, and that the positive effect of performance on tenure (as amply documented by the executive turnover literature) disappears once connections are taken into account. On the other hand, we provide evidence against the hypothesis that managerial connections contain information valuable for enhancing a bank’s performance. In particular, we find that highly connected boards cause the shorter survival of banks, and that those who benefit from connections are top managers themselves (mostly Presidents and General Managers). This suggests that connections may be collusion devices with which to maintain and share rents. Download

2440 Erkki Koskela and Panu Poutvaara, Flexible Outsourcing and the Impacts of Labour Taxation in European Welfare States

In European Welfare States, low-skilled workers are typically unionized, while the wage formation of high-skilled workers is more competitive. To focus on this aspect, we analyze how flexible international outsourcing and labour taxation affect wage formation, employment and welfare in dual domestic labour markets. Higher productivity of outsourcing, lower cost of outsourcing and lower factor price of outsourcing increase wage dispersion between the high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Increasing wage tax progression of low-skilled workers decreases the wage rate and increases the labour demand of lowskilled workers. It decreases the welfare of lowskilled workers and increases both the welfare of highskilled workers and the profit of firms. Download

2441 Marcelo Resende, Concentration and Market Size: Lower Bound Estimates for the Brazilian Industry

The paper estimates the lower bound for market concentration taking as reference the framework advanced by Sutton (1991). Quantile regression methods were considered in the context of the Brazilian manufacturing industry in 2005 and separate estimates were obtained for exogenous and endogenous sunk cost industries. The evidence favoured a convergence of the concentration lower bound towards zero in exogenous sunk costs industries in line with previous empirical evidence for developed countries. In contrast, the magnitude was similar in the case of endogenous sunk cost industries what might reflect the low technological effort in that emerging economy. Download

2442 Giandomenico Piluso and Roberto Ricciuti: Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?

This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of procyclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus. Effects in the opposite direction are much smaller. Results are quite stable over time. Download

2443 Bruno S. Frey and Katja Rost: Do Rankings Reflect Research Quality?
[See article in this issue of the Newsletter]

Publication and citation rankings have become major indicators of the scientific worth of universities and countries, and determine to a large extent the career of individual scholars. We argue that such rankings do not effectively measure research quality, which should be the essence of evaluation. For that reason, an alternative ranking is developed as a quality indicator, based on membership on academic editorial boards of professional journals. It turns out that especially the ranking of individual scholars is far from objective. The results differ markedly, depending on whether research quantity or research quality is considered. Even quantity rankings are not objective; two citation rankings, based on different samples, produce entirely different results. It follows that any career decisions based on rankings are dominated by chance and do not reflect research quality. Instead of propagating a ranking based on board membership as the gold standard, we suggest that committees make use of this quality indicator to find members who, in turn, evaluate the research quality of individual scholars. Download

2444 Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Antoaneta Serguieva and Hao Wu: Financial Contagion: Evolutionary Optimisation of a Multinational Agent-Based Model

Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during a crisis are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate crisis transmission in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although the phenomenon has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable in developing appropriate risk management strategies. Download

2445 Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro and Massimo Tavoni: Delayed Participation of Developing Countries to Climate Agreements: Should Action in the EU and US be Postponed?

This paper analyses the cost implications for climate policy in developed countries if developing countries are unwilling to adopt measures to reduce their own GHG emissions. First, we assume that a 450 CO2 (550 CO2e) ppmv stabilisation target is to be achieved and that Non Annex1 (NA1) countries decide to delay their GHG emission reductions by 30 years. What would be the cost difference between this scenario and a case in which both developed and developing countries start reducing their emissions at the same time? Then, we look at a scenario in which the timing of developing countries’ participation is uncertain and again we compute the costs of climate policy in developed and developing countries. We find that delayed participation of NA1 countries has a negative impact on climate policy costs. Economic inefficiencies can be as large as 10-25 TlnUSD. However, this additional cost wanes when developing countries are allowed to trade emission reductions from their baseline emission paths during the 30-year delay period. Thus, irrespective of whether NA1 countries are immediately assigned an emission reduction target or not, they should nonetheless be included in a global carbon market. Technology deployment is also affected by the timing of developing countries’ mitigation measures. Delayed NA1-country participation in a climate agreement would scale down the deployment of coal with CCS throughout the century. On the other hand, innovation in the form of energy R&D investments would be positively affected, since it would become crucial in developed countries. Finally, uncertainty about the timing of NA1-country participation does not modify the optimal abatement strategy for developed countries and does not alter policy costs as long as a global carbon market is in place. Download

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