Source: OECD for the PISA scores; European Central Bank for the interest rates; Markus Zimmer for the idea    

The latest PISA results show an intriguing pattern for the euro-zone countries: the lower their maths score, the higher the interest rate they have to pay on their sovereign bonds. By inference, we could say their maths scores are inversely proportional to their budget deficits and public debt levels. What do you know, we may be onto something here.

(Well, yes, we do know that: correlation is not necessarily causation. But funny correlations can make great stories. And it is Christmas time anyway.)

So, maybe retiring in your fifties, saving naught and living beyond your means have all been unjustly blamed for the on-the-brink stance of the economies on the euro-zone’s periphery? That would be great. We can immediately derive some policy conclusions from this. For one, we’ll wait until a country achieves a score of at least 488 points in the PISA study before we let them even get a foot in the euro-zone’s door. For another, let’s forget the billions in bailout funds for teetering countries. We’ll just send them an army of maths teachers instead.

And for the spoilsports who will undoubtedly point out that our little exercise in torturing the data until it screams what we want to hear has left out some outliers. Japan, for instance, boasts high maths scores (529), but nonetheless a high deficit (-7.2%) and a whopping 189% public debt-to-GDP ratio, while Chile, on the other extreme, shows a very modest score in maths (421) but an exemplary 0.3% budget surplus and, take this, public debt amounting to a measly 6.1% of GDP (and only 2.27% interest on its 10-year bonds). Well, we can point out that these are not euro-zone countries, and this correlation requires European DNA. For another, just imagine what a country like Chile will look like with a score like Finland’s? The Singapore of South America, you can bet.

But, seriously now, raising your PISA scores will generate many billions for your country's future income. Read article here. For some public-debt-to-GDP ratios, see this.

(Thanks to Markus Zimmer for his keen nose for outlandish correlations.)