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  Newsletter October 2014
Featured Paper From the Editor Economic Indicators
The Original 
Publications of Interest
The Chart Forthcoming Events People Ifo News Bulletin Board
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  Featured Paper

Breathing down my neck

Here Be Dragons

CESifo's 5,000th working paper is a worthy bearer of the round-number distinction. CESifo researchers David Dorn and Gordon Hanson and colleagues examine a side effect of China's irruption into global trading: while its opening up has benefited the world economy as a whole, a certain segment of workers, at least in the US, had to bear the brunt of China's coming-out thrust. This segment is still bruised and will probably never really recover.

Other CESifo Working Papers
Working Paper Submission Form

  The Original Sinn

 

Secular Stagnation

We seem to be hearing this phrase just about everywhere lately. True, it was coined by Alvin Hansen in 1938, but who dusted it off this time around? Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, around 2013? Well, not quite. Hans-Werner Sinn did, already back in 2009. Read here the original article, which contains a number of prescient insights.

More from and about Hans-Werner Sinn:
Sinn criticises ECB Stress Test as "too tame"
Sinn opposes transfer of risks to taxpayers
Germany must stay in the black
Sinn sees no effect in rate cut and criticizes bond purchases by ECB
German Association of Economists gives award to Ifo President

   Economic Indicators

The oxygen masks will pop down any second now

Ifo Index Rediscovers Gravity

Well, it was not just a temporary dip in what long appeared as a relentless rise. Now the Ifo Business Climate Index has fallen for six months in a row, to its lowest point since August 2012. The industries polled assessed their current business situation less favourably than last month, while their expectations for the coming six months darkened further.

Other Economic Indicators:
Credit Constraints Fall Slightly, Financial Conditions for the German Economy Remain Favourable
Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Continues To Slide
German Service Providers Plan to Recruit More Staff
German Service Sector: Ifo Business Climate for Service Sector Improves Clearly
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2014: German Economy Stagnating – Now is the Time To Strengthen Growth
Growth Prospects Remain Subdued

   From the Editor

Fighting for the 96-hour week

Bring Back the Foremen

Just what Germany needs right now, with its economy tottering. Two splinter labour unions are taking turns at paralising the country almost on a weekly basis, leveraging the chokepoint nature of their jobs to force their employers to satisfy petty demands. Maggie, where are you when we need you?

  The Chart

I'm seeing red

What a Gas

Winter is coming. It is not as if we haven't been forewarned. So, the little kingdoms of our continent are surely well-stocked, its supply lines secured should a shortfall occur, in particular those closest to the Wall? Not quite, as a new DICE interactive chart shows. And we din't do our homework during the summertime lull.

   Publications of Interest

The Green Paradox and Beyond

Climate Policy and Non-renewable Resources

Recent developments suggest that well-intended climate policies – including carbon taxes and subsidies for renewable energy – might not accomplish what policymakers intend. Hans-Werner Sinn rattled the climate debate with his "green paradox," arguing that these policies could hasten global warming by encouraging owners of fossil fuel reserves to increase their extraction rates for fear that their reserves will become worthless. In this volume, economists investigate the empirical and theoretical support for the green paradox.

Other Publications of Interest:
CESifo Forum
CESifo Economic Studies
CESifo DICE Report
CESifo World Economic Survey
CESifo Working Papers

  Forthcoming Events

Where all branches meet

ifo Branchen-Dialog (Ifo Industry Colloquium) 2014

The Ifo Industry Colloquium, aka ifo Branchen-Dialog, will be held this year on 5 November. The foremost talking shop for German industry, it is organised by the Ifo Institute in cooperation with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria, with the support of the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs and Media, Energy and Technology. It is held in German.

Other Forthcoming Events:
CEPAR & CESifo Workshops: Pension Taxation, Population Ageing, and Globalisation (Part 1, Sydney)

   People

Faces of the Month

Guests and Locals

The CESifo Group is hosting a number of scholars during October and November. See what they are working on and get to know their research focus and other aspects of interest.

Other people related news
Distinguished CES Fellow Jean Tirole Wins Nobel Prize in Economics

   Ifo News

Behold the future

New: Ifo Education Barometer

Germans are in favour of compulsory preschool attendance, the abolition of preschool fees and a whole-day school system. At the same time, a majority oppose giving childcare subsidies for stay-at-home parents. Moreover, Germans are in favour of a nationwide exam for the school-leaving examination (Abitur). These are some of the results of the first Ifo Education Barometer, a new, comprehensive and representative public opinion survey.

Other Ifo News:
The Highly Fragmented Nature of the Eastern German Economy – From a Dynamic Point of View
Ifo Institute Supports Debt Repayment and Opposes Tax Increases
Ifo Architects Survey: Encouragingly Good Current Business Situation
Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts
FAZ Ranking: Ifo Economists Highly Influential

  Bulletin Board

 

News and things of interest to CESifo Network members

Want to nominate someone (yourself?) for the prize for the Best Dissertation in Economics of Education? Or want to hear about a juicy opportunity for postdocs at Stanford? Click on. Here we gather those things you've always wanted to find but didn't know where to look for. For new postings, please contact Ines Gross.


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All texts are the responsibility of the editor and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Ifo, CES or CESifo, or of the researchers mentioned
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Editor: Julio C. Saavedra
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